Let’s take a look at the key events & information that have happened in the crypto space recently
What happened in the crypto space?
1. FED interest rate decision
On March 21, in its Q3/2024 decision, the Federal Reserve opted to maintain interest rates between 5.25% – 5.5% for the fifth consecutive meeting. They anticipate three rate cuts throughout 2024, aiming for a year-end rate of around 4.6%, while adjusting projections for 2025 to three cuts as well, targeting a rate of approximately 3.9%. Additional rate reductions are predicted in 2026 to reach a long-term rate of 2.6%.
The core PCE inflation is forecasted to rise to 2.6% in 2024, prompting caution from the Fed, which emphasizes the importance of hitting a 2% inflation target before further rate adjustments. GDP growth projections have been revised upwards to +2.1%, indicating a potential soft landing scenario. Despite ongoing inflation concerns, the decision provides some market reassurance, suggesting stability and mitigating immediate recession fears.
2. Bitcoin ETF cash flow
Regarding the Bitcoin ETF cash flow update recently, BlackRock has gained USD 233 million, while Grayscale’s significant selling has dampened its position. However, the overall cash flow has improved slightly, with a negative balance of -USD 94 million, indicating a better outcome than the previous day. These fluctuations highlight the active involvement of institutional investors like BlackRock and Grayscale in shaping the cryptocurrency market’s dynamics. With the data at the time of writing this article, BlackRock has amassed USD 19 million, while the ETF cash flow for today shows a deficit of -USD 51 million, marking a negative trend for the entire week.
3. Market Analytics
Overall, currently, BTC continues to move within this descending channel, still unable to break out of it, with the lower side being the buy support zone around 60-61k, and the upper side being the sell resistance zone around 68-69k. The price will likely continue to trend within this channel until it breaks out on one side, signaling a potential directional shift.
Following the failure to breach the resistance zone at 68-69k, BTC has reverted to testing the lower boundary, with prices oscillating between 62k-64k. The weekly timeframe of Total 2 indicates a corrective trend, suggesting a potential retest of the 700-800 billion zone if it closes below 1 trillion. On the daily timeframe, although BTC showed a breakout signal yesterday, it couldn’t sustain above the breakout level, hinting at a probable retest of the 61k zone. Should the 61k zone fail to provide support, BTC may experience a significant downturn towards the 55k-52k-45k range.
Read more: What is Bitcoin ETF? How It Works and Where to Invest Crypto
Toncoin (TON)
TON has recently broken free from its descending channel and is now in the process of constructing an ascending channel, adhering closely to its projected path. This transformation suggests a possible transition in momentum towards an upward trajectory. With TON forging ahead within this newly formed channel, there’s a sense of positivity resonating among investors, offering traders a chance to leverage the burgeoning bullish sentiment.
Fantom (FTM)
FTM has successfully breached its upward channel and is presently in the process of retesting this breakout level. In the event of Bitcoin maintaining stability, there’s a high probability that FTM will proceed with its upward breakout momentum. This suggests the potential for continued bullish action, contingent upon BTC’s behavior.
Ronin (RON)
RONIN’s core wave structure persists in an upward trend, bolstered by the continuous capital influx and substantial advantages stemming from its association with Pixel. The coin maintains its positive momentum, driven by enduring investor confidence and the advantageous prospects linked to the Pixel platform.
4. Pre-sale Memecoin Trend – The downfall and the transition money flow from Solana to BNB Chain
Dekadente, the creator of the memecoin $SMOLE, which raised $30 million on Solana, has recently become a target of scrutiny. Concurrently, the value of the $SMOLE coin has seen a decline following its listing on numerous centralized exchanges (CEXs), unlike previous presale coins. This trend is mirrored in other tokens and coins that garnered community funding on the Solana platform as you can see the result of several projects that raised fund from the community in the picture below.
In the meantime, following its peak at $208 in 2024, the price has gradually declined, currently trading at $178. This downward trend may signify a decrease in the “fear of missing out” (FOMO) sentiment within the Solana community.
Meanwhile, the market has once again entered a frenzy of FOMO as Bakeryswap achieved an unprecedented milestone by successfully raising the largest amount for a memecoin in crypto history, totaling $280 million within just 24 hours on the BNB Chain. Furthermore, the developer team has made a mysterious promise to reimburse all pre-sale funds to investors, sparking intrigue within the community. From a personal standpoint, this could potentially be a strategic move by the BNB Chain to redirect the flow of capital back to its platform, reminiscent of its actions in 2021.
5. OKX lists Venom
After several delays, Venom has finally announced the official listing of the #VENOM token on the OKX exchange, scheduled for March 25, 2024. In celebration, a listing campaign offering rewards has been initiated. Participants are encouraged to visit the venom.network website, complete a straightforward task, and provide their OKX user ID and VENOM deposit address to become eligible for rewards. This project is anticipated to symbolize the long-awaited expectations of the cryptocurrency community since its inception. However, details regarding the airdrop are still pending release.
Market plans, BTC Halving…What is next?
1. Market plans
With the current situation of the market, there will be some scenarios which depends on the Daily timeframe (D). In the Daily timeframe, BTC could encounter various scenarios:
- If the price drops below 59k, it may regress to the Intermediate Market Bottom (IMB) zone, ranging from 54-57k.
- If the IMB zone holds the price without breach, then the likelihood of it reaching the green zone, around 50k-52k, diminishes.
However, if it manages to breach through the green zone at 52k, it might retest before continuing to decline towards 45k. Additionally, there’s the scenario where it plays the stop-loss trader sweeping game around 52k (failed breakout), then proceeds upward without touching the 45k zone. This is the fourth scenario.
All these scenarios apply to the Daily timeframe.
For the Weekly timeframe (W):
- If the current price closes below 59k, it could lead to a reaction in the 50k-52k zone. If this zone holds the price, it could signal either a continuation of the uptrend or a fullback wave. This is unpredictable, but pressure to push the price up is anticipated.
- If the 50k zone is breached, it could lead to a decline towards 41k-45k.
So, the plans for the Daily and Weekly timeframes are entirely different, and the price action on the Daily timeframe presents more variables.
This is why it’s not advisable to pre-draw or pre-anticipate such scenarios.
However, overall, this year is still expected to be bullish. The best-case scenario is not breaching 52k, while the worst-case scenario is not dropping below 40k.”
2. Bitcoin Halving
The upcoming Bitcoin Halving event is typically associated with a “sell the news” event. Historically, Bitcoin has consistently seen price increases following Halving events. However, this year presents a unique scenario with the introduction of ETF inflows, resulting in Bitcoin reaching an all-time high just before the Halving for the first time. Consequently, relying solely on historical trends to predict market movements over the next two months may not be entirely reliable or predictable. Instead, it’s advisable to analyze the current trendlines and analytics as discussed previously.
For example, these two candles have relatively large volumes, nearly equal to each other. However, their outcomes differ. Candle 1 shows strong bullish momentum, which is reasonable.
On the other hand, Candle 2, although similar in volume to Candle 1, indicates indecision. This suggests selling pressure from both professional and amateur traders. The amateurs are likely to be absorbed by liquidity, while buying pressure struggles to surpass the entire sell limit set by the selling traders. Consequently, despite the apparent high buying volume, the lack of price increase indicates an issue. Moreover, the subsequent candle shows a further price decline. If the weekly candle closes below the Doji candle, there’s an 80% chance of a decrease. However, if it closes within the Doji’s body, further observation is necessary.
